Previewing the Oscars, Part 3

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At long last, the 2014 Oscars are nearly here. They say the awards season really gets kicking with the fall film festivals in early September; if that’s the case, we’ve had six months of awards season. But fear not, we are here to cut through that mountain of data and offer some picks, predictions, and other Oscar-related thoughts about who will be walking away with little golden men on Sunday night.

Joining me to discuss the races is my friend and Oscars aficionado, Ten Yangsirisuk. We also have a staff panel who have generously offered their own personal picks from the nominees and predictions for the winners in each category.

Best Supporting Actress

Tim: This, to me is the category that’s most likely to trip people up. It’s Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence, with Nyong’o  the frontrunner at the moment. I’ve been leaning towards the Lawrence upset for a while now, but I very nearly switched my prediction this week.

Ten: This race is about as neck to neck as you can get. I agree Lupita Nyong’o is ahead by a whisker but Jennifer Lawrence’s BAFTA win definitely puts her back in the running. Just to quickly summarize, Nyong’o won Critic’s Choice and SAG, while Jennifer Lawrence won Golden Globes and BAFTA. Shades of Viola Davis versus Meryl Streep from 2012?

Tim: Very close race there as well. I’m leaning Lawrence because I think the Academy just loves her too much. I know there’s the argument of fatigue, but in this case, I don’t think that’s the answer if she loses. It’s just Nyong’o becoming adored on much the same level.

Ten: Also to mention that if Lawrence wins this award, she will be the youngest consecutive Oscar winner, a high praise indeed. Will this hold her back? It’s possible, but Lawrence is also arguably the biggest actor/actress in Hollywood right now. Lawrence was the most bankable star of 2013, with her films grossing more than any other actor’s. This feat has not been achieved by an actress in forty years, since Linda Blair for The Exorcist. I can see this race going similarly to the Davis/Streep race mentioned above. In that race Davis won Critic’s Choice and SAG, with Streep winning Golden Globes and BAFTA on her way to an Oscar win. My vote goes to Lawrence.

Best Supporting Actress:

Best Supporting Actor

Tim: We can be virtually assured that this is going to Leto, so I’m going to take just a moment to say well done, Barkhad Abdi. This guy, at least as I’ve heard it, wasn’t really an actor when he was cast in Captain Phillips. If the movie were to win any awards, it would be for Abdi’s performance. Greengrass deployed him very tactically, but Abdi nailed it every time he was called upon.

Ten: Let me play devil’s advocate for a moment and give you potential reasons why Leto could not win. First, he plays a transvestite (in a role that he shines in, no doubt) and the Academy members have in the past been more hesitant to give awards to actors who have played more, for lack of a better word, controversial roles. Second, can they award two acting awards (as McConaughey is a front runner in Best Actor category) to the same movie with that said movie not being in the best picture race? Does the Academy love Dallas Buyers Club that much?

Tim: Yes.

Ten: I agree. Leto wins.

Best Supporting Actor:

Best Actress

Tim: Somehow I have made it all the way to the Oscars without having seen Blue Jasmine. I’m not sure how this has happened, but it has. So upon no firsthand knowledge other than the fact that I don’t think Sandra Bullock, Meryl Streep, or Amy Adams should win this award, I’ll say it’s Cate Blanchett’s category to lose. (Although yes, Bullock will be a player, as will Judi Dench.)

Ten: Cate Blanchett has won everything there is to win in the pre-Oscar season, but again I want to take a look at the other nominees really quick and explore why they could potentially cause an upset. Sandra Bullock is the star of Gravity. While Clooney does play a small role in the movie, Bullock’s character is the spine of that movie, it is a one woman show. With Gravity having so much buzz, how can you not award the star of that film?

Tim: Let me push back on that a little, because as much as many people love Bullock’s performance in Gravity, I overheard two people in a coffee shop just today who found it one of the most tiresome things about the movie. I’m not sure it’s entirely her fault, as the way she’s directed plays into what some have described as the noisiness of the movie, but she has, nonetheless, been occasionally viewed as grating. I think that hard split of opinion hurts her because she now has to carry all the votes of people who did like her.

Ten: That is a big argument against her. Plus Bullock also recently won for The Blind Side. On to the next potential Cate Blanchett Oscar win spoiler: Amy Adams. Adams is the only person in this category to have not won an Oscar. This is her fifth attempt. She won Best Actress in a Comedic Role at the Golden Globes so she is not winless in the pre-Oscar award season. Also, like Kate Winslet a couple years ago who hadn’t won in five attempts and finally winning on her sixth, Amy Adams might be due one. She also plays in a flashy role in a flashy movie with arguably the best cast ensemble and she is not invisible in it.

Tim: I see the argument, but for me personally it’s unconvincing. I think it would be a shame if this were the role she won in, because for me this was far from her best work. If anyone in the movie felt like they were acting, it was Adams. Which you could say suits her part, but it did pull me out of the movie on occasion. Not saying she did a bad job, not saying there’s not a case there, just that it would be too bad if this was the role that brought home the Oscar.

Ten: I agree that I think this is not her best role and Blanchett is more deserving this time around, but another quick note regarding Blanchett. Do you think the Woody Allen controversy has affected Academy voters’ opinion of the role at all, kind of a guilty by association?

Tim: Nope. I think the Academy likes Woody Allen. Well, a large percentage of its members, anyways.

Ten: I agree with that and that’s why Cate Blanchett will win, but I would not be that surprise of Adams sneaking in and winning.

Best Actress:

Best Actor

Tim: We’ve rather intentionally avoided talking about the list of the nominees themselves so far, but I feel it’s inescapable here. The discussion in this category feels positively neutered to me by the inclusion of Bruce Dern and Christian Bale to the exclusion of Oscar Isaac and Robert Redford.

Ten: Well I’ve heard it said that you could make a second best actor list from all the people not nominated and that list would be pretty deserving in itself: Robert Redford, Tom Hanks, Oscar Isaac, Idris Elba, Joaquin Phoenix, and Forest Whitaker.

Tim: There’s a list plus one. And with the exception of Whitaker and Hanks, I’d put all of those men ahead of both Dern and Bale. I think Bale was nominated because that’s what was “expected,” and I’m still baffled by the Dern nomination because he wasn’t even the lead character in his own film!

Ten: I agree Dern plays a more supporting role. Bale’s nomination though is evidence of what I’ve been saying all along, the Academy really likes American Hustle and I’m positive Bale rode that bandwagon to get in this tough race. So let’s now go into who can possibly win this award. There’s one actor who cannot win, and that is Bale. I can see strong support for all four other men. McConaughey is the favorite for sure, but I can see the three other actors pulling an upset in this category. Leonardo DiCaprio plays the loudest and flashiest role of his entire career and is considered as one of the best actors of this generation. The fact that he has not yet won an Oscar is astounding.

Tim: Yeah, it’s bizarre. He got nominated for one scene, though, and anyone who’s seen the movie knows which one before I even say it: the quaaludes scene where he’s got to get out of the hotel and into his car. The physical performance he had to sell in a very long take was absolutely remarkable.

Ten: Definitely, moving on though, Chiwetel Ejiofor is also great in his role in 12 Years a Slave, and having just won BAFTA, cannot be left out of the discussion. At one point in time, he was predicted as the favorite, and remember that 12 Years a Slave is a heavy favorite for Best Picture. Could Ejiofor ride that success to an Oscar win here? Absolutely.

Tim: Not sure I’d call 12 Years A Slave a heavy favorite, but we’ll get to that. And yes, if anyone’s going to knock off McConaughey I think it’ll Be Ejiofor. Would have been my winner.

Ten: Finally we have Dern. We’ve already discussed that his role is more a supporting role but let’s not forget that Dern is beloved by the Academy. He is the oldest of this group at 77 years of age and this might be his last chance at winning an Oscar (he has been nominated once before this one). I know that Dern is very well respected in the industry and giving him an Oscar here might be a reward for a lifetime of work, a sentimental award.

Tim: But when it comes down to it, as we’ve already kind of mentioned, this is pretty well McConaughey’s race to (probably not) lose, right?

Ten: Well at the Oscars, sometimes you have to go out on a limb because there’s usually one big upset. This is the category where I think someone will upset. Leonardo DiCaprio is my pick.

Best Actor:

Best Director

Tim: This category and Best Picture are going to be pretty hard to separate, but let’s try. I’m of the opinion that Alfonso Cuaron should win, but that’s mostly because I thought there were larger directorial errors in all of the other nominees’ films. There are some big names on this list, but it’s actually one of the weaker categories in my eye.

Ten: I personally want David O. Russell to win and it’s a shame that he has lost so much momentum. Unfortunately though, Cuaron will win this one as he has swept all the awards leading up to the Oscars.

Tim: What stuck out about Russell’s work to you?

Ten: Recently there seems to be two styles of directing, one that is focused more on the technical stuff and another focusing in on the acting side. What Cuaron achieved on a technical scale is incredible. Gravity from a technical standpoint is a masterpiece of a film. However, you yourself have noted the weakness in Bullock’s acting and in many ways, that can be attributed to the director. Russell, as mentioned by both Lawrence and Cooper during their wins at Golden Globe and SAG, is one of the best acting directors that is currently working. To be able to get his actors nominated for all four acting awards two years in a row is no small feat. I guess when it comes down to it, it’s a matter of preference. For me, I enjoy Russell’s work as an actor director and that is why I would choose him over a Cuaron or an Ang Lee (who won last year for Life of Pi).

Tim: My evaluation here came down to two things. One I’ve already mentioned – I think there were significant directorial missteps in all the nominees’ films. Two, I tried to look at which film couldn’t have been directed by someone else. The Wolf of Wall Street is probably tops in that category, but the hiccups are more like belches there, so personally I go with 12 Years A Slave, but I think the Academy will answer Cuaron.

Ten: I think Cuaron will win too.

Best Director:

Best Picture

Tim: For better or for worse, this would seem to be a three horse race, with Gravity and 12 Years A Slave duking it out with American Hustle as the possible spoiler.

Ten: Well, before we start discussing who will this category, we should probably mentioned the preferential ballot. This is the only category that the Academy decides on with the preferential ballot system, all the other categories are decided with the popular ballot.

So how the preferential ballot works is that instead of just choosing the best picture winner, the voters will rank 1-9 (1 being the most deserving film to win and 9 being the least deserving film to win) on their ballot. The ballots are then collected and split into nine piles based on the number one ranked film. If one film has over 50% of the votes right off the bat, then that film is awarded the win. However, as is likely the case this year, if no one film has over 50% of the first place ranked, then the film with the least first place ranking is eliminated. The second place ranking of that film becomes the new first place ranking and the ballots are redistributed to the remaining eight films. If a film now has over 50% of the votes then it is awarded best picture. If no film has over 50% of the first place rankings, the process is repeated until one film has over 50% of the first place ranking. What this means is that how an Academy member ranks the films are very important. So the question now is, which film between 12 Years A Slave and Gravity will be ranked higher than the other in the majority of the ballots? Also, could American Hustle, a film that no one hates, spoil the party for one of the other two?

Tim: It seems like the decision is very much between the populist choice in Gravity and the slightly more hoity-toity choice in 12 Years A Slave. The debate has been going on for some time as to exactly what “Best Picture” means. I’m not sure either of these pics hits that definition exactly, but particularly if Gravity wins, it’s hard not to see this as a referendum on the Academy. They have seemed to be moving towards the more publicly acceptable in recent years, which is a weird phenomenon, if not necessarily good or bad.

Ten: Something else to remember is that of all the pre-Oscar season awards, only one, the PGA award follows the Academy in its preferential ballot system for voting for best picture. Surprisingly, for the first time ever, two films were award Best Picture at the PGA with Gravity and 12 Years A Slave both earning exactly 50% of the votes. Now the Academy has already made it clear that a tie cannot happen at the Oscars and they have several tiebreaker methods just in case two films receive 50% of the first place rankings. We can debate forever as to which film merits best picture or which film will win best picture but there is one thing that tips my vote one certain way. All through the award season, a single pattern has emerged: Cuaron (Gravity) winning for best director and 12 Years A Slave winning for Best Picture. I see no reason as to why this pattern won’t continue at the Oscars.

Best Picture:

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