How to Win Your Oscar Pool

The 89th Academy Awards take place this Sunday, and the mxdwn team is here to help you win your Oscar pools. Join us as we offer analysis in all 24 categories with our picks for what will win on Oscar night. Let’s dig into the stats, data and trivia that will determine who and what films will take home Oscar statues this weekend. Let’s get started

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

We start with a tough one. We’re split evenly down the middle between Manchester by the Sea and La La Land and this one may come down to a coin toss. On one hand, Manchester – written by Kenneth Lonergan (a previously nominee in this category for You Can Count on Me – fares a strong chance considering this lived-in character study is the more “writerly” movie, yet La La Land – written by Damien Chazelle (a nominee in the Adapted Screenplay category two years ago for his breakout Whiplash) – may sweep, scooping up everything in sight. This is a case where precursors don’t really help either. While Manchester picked up a significant number of critics prizes, as well as the BAFTA, for its screenplay (including wins from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics), the Writers Guild threw a wrench in the race and honored Moonlight, which is over in the Adapted Screenplay category at the Oscars having been based in part on an unproduced play. Conversely, Chazelle managed a Golden Globe win in, a part of La La Land‘s complete sweep with the Hollywood Foreign Press. Confusingly, the Critic’s Choice Awards – usually a fairly accurate Oscar bellwether – awarded both Manchester and La La Land in a tied win. If the Academy is in a “share the wealth” mood than Manchester by the Sea likely easily wins, if the ceremony is a total La La Land love affair, than it likely goes to the contemporary tuner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

While Best Original Screenplays looks to be a nail-biter, Best Adapted Screenplay will likely be an easy win for Moonlight. While this critically acclaimed coming of age indie won the Writer’s Guild award in the Original Screenplay category, the win itself illustrates the popularity for Barry Jenkins’ script – from a story by Tarell Alvin McCraney. A win here will also give Jenkins an Oscar as he is likely to lose in the Best Director race. Spoilers in Arrival – winner of the WGA prize in this category, Lion – winner of the BAFTA or Fences – penned by the late, Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright August Wilson may all have a slight chance here, but Moonlight is the likely winner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Barring one of the biggest Oscar shocks in history, Viola Davis looks to take home her first Academy Award for her searing work as a beleaguered 1950s Pittsburgh housewife in Fences. Davis has already collected Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA and Critic’s Choice awards and has been considered a frontrunner since well before Fences was even screened. It further helps Davis’ case considering her stature in the industry – she is a three-time Oscar nominee, a first for a woman of color (the conversation of diversity in the industry may help as well) – and respect across multiple platforms; Davis won a Tony for a 2010 Broadway revival of Fences and an Emmy in 2015 for How to Get Away with Murder. If she wins the Oscar, she will join a distinguished company of Triple Crown winners and would only need to collect a Grammy to cement EGOT status.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

While contemporary films rarely win in this category – typically period movies with showy costuming rules the day (to which end, perhaps Florence Foster Jenkins has a chance) – the frontrunner here is likely Mary Zophres’ work on La La Land. The costuming for the Los Angeles-based musical was bright, bubbly and specifically catered to its photogenic leads – think Ryan Gosling’s sharp suits and Emma Stone’s colorful dresses – and furthermore will likely get swept up in an expected La La Land sweep; the film also recently picked up a top prize at the Costume Designers Guild (the non-nominated Hidden Figures and Doctor Strange also picked up guild mentions). Watch out for Jackie though with all of its stylish recreations of the one of the most fashion-conscious women in history. Jackie also won a BAFTA in this category.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The meditative science fiction hit Arrival impressed with its minimalist space capsules while Hail, Caesar! cleverly sent up old-Hollywood. Also, Passengers calibrated a strong “more is more” design that perhaps could have won had the film been more respected and BAFTA winner Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them continued the Harry Potter tradition of earning Best Production Design nominations. The long and the short of it is this while the category is impressive, La La Land likely wins again in a sweep. The musical recently picked up a prize from the Art Directors Guild as well.

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING

We’re mostly in agreement that Star Trek Beyond makes the most sense here though this three-slotted category is surely an odd one given two blockbusters and a foreign film in the category. If the Academy opts for a classier choice, Swedish import A Man Called Ove (a nominee in the Best Foreign-Language Film category) may nab the Oscar. Though Star Trek Beyond has some bonafides up its sleeve with a win from the Make-Up and Hair Guild as well as Oscar win in this category for the J.J. Abrams-directed 2009 reboot of the franchise.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Likely another win in the expected La La Land sweep. Linus Sandgren’s candy-colored and swoony cinematography is the favorite here though the film lost the American Society of Cinematographers prize to the also-nominated Lion. La La Land did win the BAFTA as well as the Critic’s Choice prize and split the critics prizes with the more modesty scaled (but equally impressive) photography for Moonlight.

BEST FILM EDITING

While we’re a little divided here between Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land and Moonlight, this is another case where La La Land is likely to be victorious in the end. The inventive, splashy cutting by Tom Cross – a winner in this category two years ago for Whiplash, also directed by Damien Chazelle – is surely the frontrunner; the dream ballet sequence in itself is a masterful and evocative example of the film’s sharp cutting. La La Land also picked up hardware from the ACE Eddies and a film editing prize from the Critics’ Choice Awards. Hacksaw Ridge did win this category from BAFTA and Arrival won from the ACE Eddies as well (the guild has two categories – one for drama and one for musicals/comedies), so both may prove dark horse spoilers.

BEST SOUND EDITING

The always tricky sound categories often prove a challenge. Partially because few among us really understand the distinction between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing; the Academy has trouble with the difference as well. In laments terms, sound editing refers to the creation of all the sound elements, besides music, included in the movie – think gunshots, which in theory could mean Hacksaw Ridge has an edge here due to its elaborate battlefield sequences. However, don’t overlook Arrival, which recent won the Best Sound award at the BAFTA and features a sound design both unusual and memorable – this could be one of the few places to acknowledge Denis Villeneauve’s acclaimed science fiction film. Then again, despite La La Land being a strange winner here, it may get caught up in a sweep and is likely to win Best Sound Mixing; there are overlaps in the category often.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Sound mixing, unlike sound editing, is the synthesizing of elements to achieve the proper balance between music, dialogue, sound effects and any other elements.  Though Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge may prove worthy challengers, this one is likely an easier win for La La Land considering its frontrunner status and the mere fact that musicals tend to do well in this category – for instance past tuners Les Misérables, Dreamgirls and Chicago all won this Oscar. The harder question is to whether La La Land can win both sound categories or not – in a close ballot, that decision could make all the difference.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The nod for animated film Kubo and the Two Strings here is awesome – and novel considering the only prior time the Academy has acknowledged the visual effects of an animated film was for The Nightmare Before Christmas over 20-years ago. However, it won’t win. Rogue One gracefully upped the game for a Star Wars film while keeping its roots true. That won’t win either. Marvel impressed with the psychedelic visuals for Doctor Strange, a technological leap forward for the comic book franchise which in another year might have given Marvel their first Oscar. Not this year though as this Oscar was wrapped up last April when The Jungle Book (filmed in Downtown, Los Angeles) hit screens and wiped the field. Wins from the Visual Effects Society, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice Awards further sealed the deal.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Aw, the short films, the death knell of many an Oscar pool. Sometimes you just have to eat them, but the categories have gotten easier in recent years due to a couple of factors. First off, for several years now the shorts have been packaged and theatrically released, which has upped the number of people who actually get to see them. Second, the Academy recently opened up the short categories to all members instead of select voting blocks that depended on people actually watching them at an Academy screening. The honor system-vote also typically helps the film with the highest profile  – which this year is Pixar’s Piper (which premiered in front of Finding Dory and easily has had the most eyeballs).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

While Kubo and the Two Strings may prove a dark challenger thanks to its surprise BAFTA win and a well-thought out Oscar campaign, it would be really surprising if anything other than Disney’s Zootopia wins out in the end. Zootopia has picked up hardware from the Producers Guild, Golden Globes, Annie Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards and the New York Film Critics Circle. Furthermore, the critically admired blockbuster may garner more points due the film’s deft takes on racism and inclusion in a year where politics (and Trump’s America) will surely be top of mind for many voters.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali’s sensitively wrought turn as Juan, the empathetic father surrogate to central character Chiron in Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight appears the favorite to take home the Oscar. Ali pretty much swept the critics prizes and recent picked up a Screen Actors Guild award and won over even more fans for his insightful and thoughtful acceptance speech. However, this category has been a little wild in the precursors giving a sense that a spoiler might be underway. Most oddly, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson who picked up the Golden Globe in this category for Nocturnal Animals (a performance that failed to make the Oscar cut, though his co-star Michael Shannon sneaked in). Also, Dev Patel (who did up an Oscar nod for Lion) won the BAFTA in perhaps due to a home team playing field.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Another short category and a strong one at that. Fortunately, the short categories have been easier to predict in recent years due to the Academy opening up the entire membership to vote for them, utilizing the honor system rather than making members prove they had seen all nominees. With this rule change, the film with the highest profile typically wins and this year that likely helps The White Helmets (available to view on Netflix), a moving documentary short that centers around brave first responders aiding Syria. This may also prove a political vote as Raed Saleh and Khaled Khateeb, principle players in the film, would have been barred due to Trump’s controversial travel ban from attending the Oscar ceremony which only upped The White Helmet‘s profile.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

The final of the short categories and the hardest to predict as neither of the live-action short subjects have seen an elevated profile throughout the campaign season. That being said, the French short Ennemis intérieurs may a solid bet. The film is described as follows: “An interview at a local police station turns into an inquisition during which a French-Algerian born man sees himself accused of protecting the identities of possible terrorists. This close-up on France’s troubled history with its former colonies has one man controlling the fate of another with the stroke of a pen during a turbulent period in the 1990s.”

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

If critics had the vote here, acclaimed German dramedy Toni Erdmann (readying a flashy American redo with Jack Nicholson) would likely take home the Oscar in a walk. However, in what will likely be a heavily politicized Oscar year, the smart money is likely on Asghar Farhadi’s Cannes-winning Iranian film The Salesman. Farhadi’s A Separation previously won this category so the director has a following and furthermore made a major splash due to Trump’s controversial travel ban, which would have likely made it been impossible for the international beloved filmmaker from attending the ceremony. From a different thread, a riskier bet would be Sweden’s A Man Called Ove, an admired bittersweet dark comedy that in a different era probably would have won this race – the film’s second nomination in the Best Make-Up and Hairstyling category may make it a dark horse. Precursors won’t help here as Elle (not nominated) won the Golden Globe and last year’s winner, Son of Saul, won the BAFTA.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

This one looked like a fierce race for a while with La La Land going up against Moana and its tunes penned by Hamilton mastermind Lin-Manuel Miranda. Then “City of Stars,” the minimalist song so persuasively utilized in La La Land‘s marketing, just started storm-rolling and looks likely to take the Oscar home. However, for trivia notes, if Miranda does sneak in, he will join the rarefied EGOT club as he has already earned an Emmy, Grammy and Tony.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

A strong, eclectic and surprisingly fresh category that includes the fine compositions to Jackie, Lion and Moonlight. However, this one is La La Land‘s to lose in a cake walk.

BEST DIRECTOR

The hip vote goes to Barry Jenkins for Moonlight, but he has a better shot at a screenplay Oscar than here. Damien Chazelle is far and away the favorite for his nostalgic, yet contemporary original musical La La Land. He’s already taken home prizes from the Directors Guild, Golden Globes, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice Awards, so this should be an easy victory for the frontrunner. Trivia note, the 32-year old would become the youngest winner in Oscar in this category.

BEST ACTRESS

For her charming turn as an aspiring actress who falls in love with a wannabe musician, Emma Stone has already picked up a BAFTA, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild awards and she’s the odds on favorite to win the Oscar as well, aided in no small part for bravura showtopping song “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – a Best Original Song nominee – and her perfected movie star chemistry with nominated co-star Ryan Gosling. The she sings, dances and portrays a dreamy artist will likely further endure her performance with the Academy. If a dark horse, however, is there is might be Golden Globe winner Isabelle Huppert, who turns in a master class in acting in the French provocation Elle. That movie, though, is likely too dark and too out there for the Academy.

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck barreled through the critics prizes, picking up nearly every major prize in sight for his compassionate performance in Manchester by the Sea and also picked up a Golden Globe and BAFTA prize for his work. In setting this course – one that started with Manchester‘s critical acclaim garnered one year ago at Sundance – made him an early favorite. However, the race got interesting when Denzel Washington picked up the SAG award for his searing role in Fences, cementing a two-person race. Our team still thinks Affleck has the edge, but Washington is coming up as a strong spoiler. If you’re feeling like taking a risk, just maybe Ryan Gosling will get caught up in a La La Land sweep.

BEST PICTURE

Simply put, if La La Land loses Best Picture, it will be the biggest upset in this category since Crash beat Brokeback Mountain eleven years ago.