Previewing the Oscars, Part 2

Go to Part 1

Go to Part 3

At long last, the 2014 Oscars are nearly here. They say the awards season really gets kicking with the fall film festivals in early September; if that’s the case, we’ve had six months of awards season. But fear not, we are here to cut through that mountain of data and offer some picks, predictions, and other Oscar-related thoughts about who will be walking away with little golden men on Sunday night.

Joining me to discuss the races is my friend and Oscars aficionado, Ten Yangsirisuk. We also have a staff panel who have generously offered their own personal picks from the nominees and predictions for the winners in each category.

Editing

Tim: I cannot for the life of me remember much that was significant in the way any of these films were cut. Help me out.

Ten: Well you have intense suspense in both Gravity and Captain Phillips, you have drama in 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyers Club, and you have comedy in American Hustle. From a personal standpoint, this award is the hardest for me to differentiate. All these five movies are brilliantly edited. To me it’s either good editing or bad editing, there’s not much overlap between the two. As with many categories at the Oscars, the film with that is “showiest” in their respective category tends to win. The two films that seem to be front runners in this category are Gravity and Captain Phillips. Asked me two months ago and I would have said Gravity will win this award, but now, after Captain Phillips won at the Eddie Awards (American Cinema Editors Guild), my vote goes for Captain Phillips.

Tim: Yeah, but isn’t this just more of the same from a Paul Greengrass movie? Flight 93 was nominated in this category, and The Bourne Ultimatum won. Isn’t the Academy looking for something a little more fresh?

Ten: They might be, but Captain Phillips is also widely regarded as a very good film by the people in the industry. While it is nominated in five other categories, this is the most likeliest place it could win and because of this, the Academy voters could be tempted to crown it.

Editing:

Cinematography

Tim: Of all the categories Gravity is nominated in, this is the one that I actually think it should win the most. Well, this and visual effects. I’m not nearly as high on the whole film as a lot of people, but my goodness, what a pretty film. What else contends?

Ten: Well, more of a personal choice than anything, but I would love to see Prisoners win. Roger Deakins, the director of photography, is a master at his craft and having ten previous nominations and no wins, he could win due to the sympathy vote. Having said that, Emmanuel Lubezki, director of photography for Gravity, has five previous nomination and no wins and is also one of the finest cinematographers working today.

Tim: Prisoners isn’t nominated anywhere else – does that hurt or help Deakins? Seems like it’ll be all too easy to ignore him again.

Ten: Exactly, it hurts his chances. Also, another interesting note is that the ballot for this category in the Oscars only list the film and not the cinematographer. Unless you are a cinematographer or really research the movie, you wouldn’t know that Deakins is the cinematographer at all.

Cinematography:

Original Screenplay

Tim: Let’s start by ticking off what can’t win. I don’t think either Nebraska or American Hustle has a chance, but maybe I’m just reading my own opinions into this race.

Ten: I disagree with you on American Hustle. I think it has a very good chance of winning. Nebraska has no chance and Blue Jasmine has no chance as well.

Tim: Blue Jasmine – no chance because of the Woody Allen controversy, or just was never going to compete anyways?

Ten: It had an outside chance of winning before the controversy, but unfortunately, with the whole controversy blowing up, Blue Jasmine has no chance. It’s unfortunate that outside politics has an influence on determining something like art, but it does.

Tim: So on to what’s likely to win. Her has swept up most of the pre-Oscar awards in this category, if I’m not mistaken. Any reason to believe it’s going to lose that crown?

Ten: The only award show that did not crown Her for Best Original Screenplay was BAFTA. American Hustle won there. American Hustle is in a strong contender simply because of David O. Russell’s name. O. Russell is a very popular name around Hollywood, widely regarded as one of the best actor directors currently working, and has made three best picture nominee films in the past four years. Not to mentioned that he has been nominated for a screenplay award last year and three directing awards (including this year) and has won none. This might be the place to finally reward him.

Tim: I don’t know. To me, one of the biggest problems with American Hustle came with its script. The Best Picture nomination came from strength elsewhere in the movie, but I’m unconvinced it can pull a win here out of the same hat. If anything challenges, I think it’s actually Dallas Buyers Club, which the Academy has seemed to favor over many of the other awards-giving entities.

Ten: I agree, I wouldn’t count out Dallas Buyers Club because of that very reason. The Academy seems to love Dallas Buyers Club and it has definitely out performed with its nominations. Going back to American Hustle for a second though, another reason why the Academy could reward this film is because at one point in time, American Hustle was in a three way race for Best Picture. While its momentum there has stalled, there is still support for it. Interestingly enough, the three directors for the three front runners, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity, are nominated for best director and another category (Cuaron and McQueen are both producers and are up for Best Picture). With Cuaron likely winning Best Director and McQueen likely winning Best Picture, David O. Russell will be the only one going home empty handed if he does not win an Oscar for this category. Lacking anywhere else to reward him, this could be that place.

Tim: I don’t buy that the Academy tosses Russell an award just so he can keep pace in an artificially constructed trio. No way American Hustle takes this to me. Also, that’s making some pretty hefty assumptions about the later categories.

Ten: It must be noted though that the three films gaining the most buzz this year (whether merited or not) are 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle and the buzz around Hollywood is that American Hustle is very much beloved.

Tim: Yes, but now you’re arguing something other than the category. You can’t suppose that the voting will mete out the Academy Awards in some equitable fashion. Each award is for something specific, not just the film at large. Look down the list and there’s a decent chance American Hustle gets shut out of the awards. Not necessarily a bad thing.

Ten: While I agree that in its purest sense, that should be the case. However, in reality, there have been instances in previous years when a film has won an award based on “buzz.”

Tim: Sure, there’s the famous Picture/Director split phenomenon, but I don’t think voters are looking at Russell and saying to themselves, poor David, what will he do without an Academy Award in 2014?

Ten: I think they can, whether that’s fair or not, and that’s why I think American Hustle will win this award.

Original Screenplay:

Adapted Screenplay

Tim: I feel like the place to begin here, too, is to start listing what can’t take the cake, and I think it’s The Wolf of Wall Street and Captain Phillips. Wolf has generated too much backlash, and Phillips doesn’t stand out.

Ten: I agree with you there. Honestly, I only see one film likely winning from these five nominees.

Tim: And that is…

Ten: 12 Years a Slave.

Tim: Ooh, I disagree. I don’t think Before Midnight will take it, but it’s going to get some strong consideration just based on the span of the series, and I think Philomena is the other serious contender. Although, yes, I think 12 Years A Slave is your de facto winner, despite the fact that I don’t think it did a great job adapting the book.

Ten: I do agree that Before Midnight and Philomena have an outside chance of winning it, but only one of these five nominees is in the Best Picture race and that is 12 Years a Slave. If 12 Years a Slave loses this award, I think it will have a hard time winning Best Picture.

Adapted Screenplay:

Best Foreign Film

Tim: I have regrettably seen none of these pictures yet. Omar and The Missing Picture don’t seem to have much buzz around them. The Hunt and The Great Beauty do. And then The Broken Circle Breakdown maybe gets a bump from the fact that it’s dealing with country music. Maybe. What’s jumping out?

Ten: Like you, I haven’t seen any of these films yet but I agree that the three films that stand out are the ones you mentioned. Of those three though, The Hunt has seemed to lose its momentum coming into the final week before award season. Therefore I can see the award going to one of the other two. Of these two, The Great Beauty won Golden Globes and perhaps has the most buzz behind it. That’s my prediction.

Foreign Language Film:

Best Documentary Film

Tim: This is another one where I’m behind the 8-ball. I’ve seen 20 Feet From Stardom, and it’s good, but it doesn’t strike me as an Oscar winner. That seems to be The Square, Dirty Wars, or The Act of Killing. Can you narrow it down any more?

Ten: Well here’s what’s happening in this category. You have four nominees who subject is quite dark and you have one film, 20 Feet From Stardom, which is more light hearted and triumphant. Will Academy voters pick the apple among the oranges? I think they will. Sometimes it’s good to be different and stand out and in this category that is what 20 Feet From Stardom does.

Tim: What about Cutie and the Boxer? Seems pretty lighthearted to me.

Ten: Cutie and the Boxer might not be as dark as the other three nominees but it’s also the film with the least amount of buzz behind it. In a category where it’s very likely that not every Academy voter will have seen all five nominees, buzz and word of mouth is very powerful and that is why 20 Feet from Stardom is my prediction, but I won’t be surprised if something else wins.

Best Documentary Feature:

Best Animated Feature

Tim: And now we’ve come to the Frozen category. I think it’s a huge shame that most U.S. audiences won’t have seen The Wind Rises (which comes out in its English dub this week; the Japanese version played briefly in New York and Los Angeles last November to qualify) before the Academy Awards come around. This was a gorgeous film that was very good, and should be challenging Frozen, at a minimum.

Ten: I’ll give you another film that should be challenging, Ernest and Celestine. Another film that had a very limited release in the U.S. to qualify (also coming out this week with its English dub). That too is a gorgeous film that was very good. But another big surprise here, no Pixar. Granted, the Pixar film this year was not that memorable, but Pixar has almost become the Meryl Streep of this category.

Tim: When it’s all said and done here, is anything but Frozen walking away the winner?

Ten: Almost as big a lock as Gravity winning visual effects. There’s no chance of anything else winning this one.

Tim: Yep, I agree

Best Animated Feature:

Go to Part 1

Go to Part 3