Previewing the Oscars, Part 1

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At long last, the 2014 Oscars are nearly here. They say the awards season really gets kicking with the fall film festivals in early September; if that’s the case, we’ve had six months of awards season. But fear not, we are here to cut through that mountain of data and offer some picks, predictions, and other Oscar-related thoughts about who will be walking away with little golden men on Sunday night.

Joining me to discuss the races is my friend and Oscars aficionado, Ten Yangsirisuk. We also have a staff panel who have generously offered their own personal picks from the nominees and predictions for the winners in each category.

Best Score

Tim: Ok, let’s get rolling with some of the musically inclined categories. It looks to me that Her and Gravity are probably the front runners here. Anything we should be adding to that list?

Ten: While those two films are definitely the front runners, I do not think you can ever count out John Williams for The Book Thief.

Tim: Fair enough. I’ve seen a few predictions for Saving Mr. Banks as well. Thomas Newman does have a pretty impressive resume. Nominations for Skyfall and Wall-E in recent years. And actually, Alexandre Desplat (Philomena) can’t be counted out if we’re looking at resumes. He’s been nominated five out of the last seven years. So is this a wide open field?

Ten: It wouldn’t be a shock if any of the five composers ended up winning, if we are to look at the films where the score definitely stands out, Gravity takes it. You have limited dialogue, giving an opportunity for the music to really shine. Also, Gravity did win the Best Score award at the Critic’s Choice, giving it further momentum.

Original Score:

Original Song

Tim: From score to song. Everyone seems to be pushing “Let It Go,” but let’s not forget that it didn’t win the Golden Globe in this category.

Ten: No it didn’t, that award went to “Ordinary Love” by U2 from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. Could it win again at the Academy Awards? Definitely.

Tim: We can’t really talk about Disney fatigue, though, can we? It’s been three years since another Disney song took this category (“We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3 in 2011).

Ten: Not to mention that “Let It Go” has also won awards this award season, Critic’s Choice to be exact. I do think that this award will go to one of these two songs.

Tim: No love for “The Moon Song”?

Ten: Unfortunately not. The momentum just isn’t with “The Moon Song.” Another thing to watch are the artists behind these songs. Idina Menzel is adored in the industry.

Original Song:

Sound Editing & Sound Mixing

Tim: Shifting now to the more technical awards, is there anything to challenge Gravity in either category? It just doesn’t seem to me like some of the down-ticket nominees have enough support to play into the outcome, but this is also potentially where the Academy rewards some particular merit.

Ten: Well within the last couple years, the Sound Editing award went to the “loudest” film and Sound Mixing went to the most “musical” film. If that trends continues, Lone Survivor would win for Sound Editing and Inside Llewyn Davis for Sound Mixing. Will this happen? Probably not, I don’t see any film taking away the technical awards from Gravity this year.

Sound Editing:

Sound Mixing:

Costume Design

Tim: This seems to me to be one of the most wide open fields. With the partial exception of The Grandmaster, it’s a bunch of period films putting its actors in period costume. What’s setting any movie in this category apart right now?

Ten: The one thing separating these films apart is the one thing that Oscar voters generally vote for in this category and that is that “flashiest” costumes generally tend to take this award. With that being said, you can cut out all but two films, The Great Gatsby and American Hustle. Of these two, the costumes in The Great Gatsby stand out more and therefore my prediction goes to The Great Gatsby.

Tim: No chance 12 Years A Slave sneaks in by getting extra votes as a Best Picture contender?

Ten: Traditionally, this award hasn’t been determined by the Best Picture race. Anna Karenina won this award last year and Mirror Mirror won the year before that. I think there are other awards where who’s contending for Best Picture can determine the outcome, but not here.

Costume Design:

Hair & Makeup

Tim: This might just be the oddest list of nominees in this year’s awards.

Ten: That’s very true, the fact that American Hustle is not even nominated is beyond me. Tina Fey joked at the Golden Globes that the original title of the film should have been “Explosion at the Wig Factory,” and I agree with her.

Tim: But this really has to be between Bad Grandpa and Dallas Buyers Club, right? With apologies to Johnny Depp’s face paint, one film made a 40-year-old actually look 70 to people on the street, and the other, well, Jared Leto did look a lot like a woman.

Ten: Interestingly, if Lone Ranger wins this award, it could potentially be one of only a few films to have won both an Oscar and a Razzie Award (nominated for five out of nine awards). Having said that, Lone Ranger has no chance. As much as I think it would be humorous to have the presenters of this award read, “And the winner is: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa,” I don’t see the Academy voters going that way. Dallas Buyers Club wins.

Makeup & Hair:

Production Design

Tim: I have a feeling this is one of the places I’m going to end up disagreeing with the Academy pretty vehemently. I’ve made no secret about how much I love Her, and I think the production design is one of the major plusses of that movie. I also think this is another award that’s skewing Gravity or 12 Years A Slave at the moment.

Ten: This is one of the awards that I can see going to a Best Picture contender. Lincoln won this award last year even though Anna Karenina was the favorite. It also interesting to see that of the five nominees, only one, The Great Gatsby, is not a best picture contender. This tells me that the Academy members must really like the production design of this movie to nominate it against Best Picture contenders. Can The Great Gatsby win? Yes, but I have feeling one of the Best Picture contenders will take this award.

Tim: Ok, but that’s shooting pretty broadly. Anything seem to be out in front, or is this category still a toss up right now?

Ten: It’s still pretty much a toss up, but of the four Best Picture contenders, only two are period pieces (period pieces tend to win this award) and of those two, 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle, the former has more likelihood of winning Best Picture. My prediction goes to 12 Years a Slave.

Production Design:

Visual Effects

Tim: I’m beginning to feel like a broken record. Any other year and all the genre pics fight for this award. This year, it’s got to be Gravity, right?

Ten: Pretty much the biggest lock of the night.

Visual Effects:

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