2023 feels like the first “post-covid” year for the movie industry, with productions now entirely back in swing (except with the writers’ strike, more on that here) and theaters back to entire operation with big movies dropping seemingly every other weekend. As we reach the halfway point of the year, it’s time to sit down and review the box office for 2023 so far and see what’s been working with audiences and what’s been flopping. We used the website The Numbers for this article but also cross-referenced it with Box Office Mojo for additional information and insight.
So to start, let’s talk about the winners so far and why they’re winning. As of May 20th, 2023, the 5 highest-grossing films are 5. John Wick: Chapter 4, 4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, 3. Avatar: The Way of Water, 2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, and the absolute juggernaut of the year for sure, 1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie. If you want to make the list exclusively of films released in 2023, drop Avatar: The Way of Water from the list and add Creed III in the number 5 slot.
The main takeaway from this top five list is that all of these movies are a part of some pre-existing IP, with 4 out of 5 being sequels. This trend extends when you look further down the top-grossing list, with 12 of the top 25 films being sequels. This is similar to 2022, however, that year, all of the top 10 films were sequels, whereas 2023 had only 8 out of 10. The two non-sequel films on the 2023 top 10 list are the Blumhouse/Atomic Monster horror flick M3GAN at #9 and the surprise Paramount mid-budget success, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves at #10.
This becomes more interesting as you venture into the 25 highest-grossing films, with films like Cocaine Bear, AIR, and 80 for Brady making some decent box office splashes as original movies. The most interesting top 25 winners have got to be #13 and #17 on the list, A Man Called Otto, the comedy where Tom Hanks plays a cranky old Scrooge of a man who meets a nice family, and The Jesus Revolution, a Lionsgate production about a 1970’s Christian revival movement? Both of these movies have passed $50 million, yet no one has talked about them meaningfully. Unlike Evil Dead Rise, another surprise winner in the top 25, widely praised and celebrated for its box office success, Otto and Jesus have seemingly sneaked onto the list without anyone noticing. A Man Called Otto has even surpassed $100 million when looking at its international box office being a huge success in countries like the UK, Australia, and Mexico.
With international box office in mind, it should be noted that the recently released Fast X has recently surpassed $250 million internationally, passing up John Wick: Chapter 4 and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, but still being short when compared to the other heavy hitters this year. This is a huge thanks to China, whose $77 million box office for Fast X has surpassed the Domestic’s $67 million. China has not been a huge factor for most of the other flicks in the top ten, aside from the MCU films like Guardians Vol 3 and Ant-Man 3, which is rather unusual since China usually carries many major blockbusters into the top 10 list. The significant contributors to 2023’s box office are England and Mexico, who have been integral to the success of many heavy hitters.
Speaking of heavy hitters, The Super Mario Bros Movie is the feature to talk about when it comes to box office success in 2023. Not only has the animated children’s film made by Illumination proven that it has legs, being at the box office for nearly two months straight, but it has also been making a ton of cash. As of now, the movie has grossed over a billion dollars, is the 3rd highest-grossing animated film of all time (just surpassing Disney’s Incredibles 2 but behind Frozen and Frozen II), and has the 14th highest-grossing domestic box office of all time (21st internationally, still behind 2017’s Beauty and The Beast). This is a huge success for not only Universal and Illumination but also films based on video games which have had a lot of success lately, with Mario’s old rival Sonic making waves with his last two films, as well as Uncharted making a surprising $400 million at the box office last year.
Enough talk about winners; let’s talk about losers, which there are not a lot as of May. At number #22 on the box office list is the Adam Driver-led dinosaur, sci-fi, action thriller 65. It barely made its $45 million budget through its rather underwhelming $56 million worldwide box office. A recent release that also fell flat was double Nicholas (Cage and Holt) film Renfield, which made a measly $24 million worldwide while having a budget of $86 million. With recent flops in mind, Sony’s Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World also rang hollow, with audiences only making about $5 million worldwide behind a budget of $32 million.
Two of the most notable flops of 2023 so far are from two very different studios, Warner Bros Discovery and A24. The DCEU has had a rough time making cultural and financial waves over the last few years. Shazam: Fury of the Gods is a prime example, with abysmal critical reviews and barely surpassing its production budget of $125 million. When considering if a movie is financially successful, a film needs to surpass its budget and marketing cost, which can sometimes be as high if not half as high as its production budget. So Shazam 2’s performance will be considered a flop by the studio.
Conversely, we have A24, a champion in low-budget investment into extensive box-office technique, but unfortunately, we fell short this year. A24’s most notable film so far, Beau is Afraid, has done rather poor numbers, especially compared to its director, Ari Aster’s, previous works, Hereditary and Midsommar. With a production budget of $35 million, the film has only grossed about $9 million, which is a massive loss for Aster and A24.
So what is there to take from all these numbers and rankings? Well, IP films seem to stay as the top dogs at the box office. However, many small to mid-budget films can hold their own and be successful, mainly if they feature well-known stars like Tom Hanks or Matt Damon. Horror is still intense, with Evil Dead Rise, M3GAN, and Scream VI making over $100 million each. Comic book movies might be losing their grip at the top with the underperformance of Shazam: Fury of the Gods and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which is not considered a flop but definitely wasn’t the slam dunk Marvel/Disney probably wanted it to be.
The last thought to share has to be that Disney might be in trouble. Sure, Guardians Vol 3 and Ant-Man 3 are in the top 3 box-office-wise, but they still are not making the huge gains that Disney has been used to. With the second half of the year in mind, they do have The Little Mermaid remake, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, and The Marvels, which might make up for the lost ground; there’s still a fear that this might be the first year in a while where Disney is not the defacto king of the box office. This year could be the shift where other studios can creep in and take the crown, but we’ll have to see how the rest of the year shakes out.
With the rest of 2023 in mind, here are some notable films that could have huge returns at the box office. Sony’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, is the highly anticipated sequel to the revered animated film from 2018. Warner Bros hopes to reset its DC film universe and box office uncertainty with The Flash featuring two Ezra Millers and the return of Michael Keaton as Batman. Paramount is gearing Tom Cruise back up in another big action flick with Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, a franchise that has grown increasingly successful with each entry. The last two films to mention as potential box office smashes would have either Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and Dune: Part Two. Both are sequels to successful Warner Bros. films, which could lead to a big payout for the studio. 2018’s Aquaman raked in a surprising billion, so there is potential for the sequel to follow up, if not surpass, its predecessor, as do many superhero films. Meanwhile, Dune made a respectable $391 million, which did help convince Warner Bros to greenlight the sequel, so there’s faith that this could be profitable for them.
2023 has been an exciting year for the box office, with much potential coming down the pipeline. We’ve had a lot of interesting and exciting surprises so far, and some of the most significant moves haven’t even come out yet. This could be the year that Disney loses the crown, the end of the superhero reign, and/or the return of the mid-budget success story. Any of these could be accurate, but all we can do now is sit back, enjoy some movies, and see how it shakes out by the end of the year.
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