Although the SAG-AFTRA is over, Hollywood may not return to normal soon. Expiring on July 31, the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) contract and Basic Crafts contract pose a potential issue to the film industry. It’s unclear whether the studios have achieved lasting labor peace or if more strikes will arise.

According to the secretary-treasurer of Teamsters Local 399, Lindsay Dougherty, “We’re going to be demanding things we believe members deserve for the work they do…Our members make Hollywood move.”

Factoring in for both sides in future negotiations is how both the studios and the below-the-line workforce took a hit in 2023. Because of the strikes and the slowdown preceding the strikes, many industry workers will have gone without work for an entire year.

IATSE negotiations are expected to begin in March, and according to a spokesperson for IATSE International, the union “will fight aggressively at the table to achieve a contract that reflects our members’ priorities and their invaluable contributions to the success of the entertainment industry.” It is important to note that IATSE has never done an industry-wide strike; however, they did come close two years ago.

Just as the writers’ and actors’ strikes helped the unions make gains not originally on the table at the start, some believe below-the-line unions will also have to strike to receive similar gains.

Dejon Ellis Jr., IATSE Local 80’s business manager, said, “Strikes work. They hurt, but they work…The employer is making unions pull this trigger. For the last five years or so, it seems like for union members to get what they want, we have to hit the streets.”

How much the studios suffered from the strikes is up for debate. Chief global strategist at the Milken Institute, Kevin Klowden, estimates that the studios took $7 billion in damages; founding partner of Beacon Economics Christopher Thornberg argues the impact didn’t amount to much. Even so, the studios delayed some major theatrical releases, pushing them from 2024 to 2025. 

According to Eric Handler, senior research analyst at Roth MKM, this revenue is “not permanently lost…It’s just shifted from one year to another,” so it may take a year or more to understand the strike’s true impact on the studios.