Thanksgiving Boom: ‘Wicked’ Eyes $85M Opening, Followed By $65M for ‘Gladiator II’

A Thanksgiving feast is being prepared at the box office.

Universal’s musical Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II are tracking to open to strong numbers over the Nov. 22-23 weekend, the beginning of the prosperous holiday corridor. Leading research firm NRG shows Wicked opening to $85 million, which would be one of the biggest starts for a musical, sources shared to The Hollywood Reporter.

Filmmaker Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the popular Broadway musical stars a high profile cast led by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. The film was originally set to open Nov. 27, the day before Thanksgiving, but moved up to build word of mouth heading into Thanksgiving week. The new date allows for the double feature with Gladiator II, and gives it some breathing room from Disney’s Moana 2, which sails into theaters Nov. 27.  (Moana 2 is likewise looking to open to big numbers, based on record advance ticket sales. It hasn’t come on NRG tracking yet.)

An early influencer screening of Wicked drew rave reactions this week. It’s the first of Chu’s two films adapting the famed musical, with part two set for Thanksgiving 2025. The stage show, originally based on the best-selling novel by Gregory Maguire, shines light on the untold story of the witches of Oz. Erivo portrays Elphaba and Grande portrays Glinda. Winnie Holzman, the stage production’s book writer, wrote the film’s screenplay with Dana Fox. Academy Award-winning composer and lyricist Stephen Schwartz adapted the musical for the screen.

Helmed by Ridley Scott, Gladiator II opens 24 years after the first film. The follow up stars Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, Pedro Pascal, Connie Nielsen and Fred Hechinger, among others.

The film sees Mescal playing a grown-up Lucius Verus II, a nephew of Emperor Commodus from the original Gladiator, played by Joaquin Phoenix. Lucius returns to Rome after being forced into slavery to battle as a gladiator instead of a ruler. He is out for revenge and power, seeking to return the glory of Rome to its people.

Gladiator II also drew strong first reactions in an early screening on Oct. 18. The first trailer released in July amassed 215 million global cross platform views in only a few days. The original film won five Oscars and earned $465.4 million worldwide, not adjusted for inflation.

Between the three films, Moana 2 could be the biggest of them all. The holiday should help the box office make a significant rebound after a rough patch due to gaps in the calendar caused by the pandemic and last year’s labor strikes.