This October is shaping up to be the worst-performing October at the box office since 1997, excluding 2020. The total domestic box office for the month is expected to top out at about $425 million, making it the weakest October of the 21st century, of course, excluding 2020, when many movie theaters were still shut down.

Big releases this month included Tron: Ares ($64.7 million), Roofman ($20 million), Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (currently $11.6 million), The Smashing Machine ($11.3 million), Good Fortune ($12.9 million) and Regretting You ($18.2 million). These domestic box office numbers are all well under expectations for these films. There have been a few moderate successes released this month films such as Black Phone 2 and Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc. Additionally, films released in September still put up reasonable numbers moving into October, including Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, The Conjuring: Last Rites and One Battle After Another.

So, what exactly happened? It’s a combination of a bunch of reasons. For one, many of these films had inflated budgets that could not reasonably make them back. The Smashing Machine, while having The Rock as a headliner, is much different from Johnson’s other films and likely deterred most of his fans. The film cost around $50 million, which is a lot of money for a biopic about a lesser-known fighter. Similarly, Tron: Ares had a budget of $180-$220 million, a very expensive film. It’s been 15 years since Tron: Legacy, a film that was only a modest success upon release. Top that off with Jared Leto headlining the film, an actor who has lost a lot of popularity over the last few years, and lots of negative reviews, and it’s no surprise that this film failed to take off.

Another reason for the October flop may be the lack of horror releases. October is the horror month, and the only major horror flick released was Black Phone 2. A handful of smaller, indie horror films, such as Good Boy, Bone Lake and Shelby Oaks, were released but the lack of studio horror in October is shocking. General audiences want to see scary movies in October, and the options for those this month were shockingly limited.

There is still time for 2025 to recover, with November and December being loaded with heavy hitters. Zootopia 2, Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash all have chances to make over $1 billion. Plus, movies like The SpongeBob Movie: The Search for SquarePants, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, The Running Man, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Marty Supreme could all hit big.